Simulating Oil Spill Evolution and Environmental Impact with Specialized Software: A Case Study for the Black Sea

Oil spills represent a significant environmental hazard, particularly in marine ecosystems, where their impacts extend to coastal infrastructure, biodiversity, and economic activities. This study utilizes GNOME v.47.2 (General NOAA Operational Modeling Environment) and ADIOS2 v.2.10.2 (Automated Data Inquiry for Oil Spills) to simulate and analyze oil spill dynamics in the Romanian sector of the Black Sea, focusing on trajectory prediction, hydrocarbon weathering, and shoreline contamination risk assessment. The research explores multiple spill scenarios involving different hydrocarbon types (light vs. heavy oils), vessel dynamics, and real-time environmental variables (wind, currents, temperature). The findings reveal that lighter hydrocarbons (e.g., gasoline, aviation fuel) tend to evaporate quickly, while heavier fractions (e.g., crude oil, fuel oil #6) persist in the marine environment and pose a higher risk of coastal pollution. In the first case study, a spill of 10,000 metric tons of medium oil (Arabian Medium EXXON) was simulated using GNOME v.47.2, showing that after 22 h, the slick reached the shoreline. Under forecasted hydro-meteorological conditions, 27% evaporated, 1% dispersed, and 72% remained for mechanical or chemical intervention. In the second simulation, 10,000 metric tons of gasoline were released, and within 6 h, 98% evaporated, with only minor residues reaching the shore. A real-world validation case was also conducted using the December 2024 Kerch Strait oil spill incident, where the model accurately predicted the early arrival of light fractions and delayed coastal contamination by fuel oil carried by subsurface currents. These results emphasize the need for future research focused on the vertical dispersion dynamics of heavier hydrocarbon fractions.