Examining the relationships between education, coresidential unions, and the fertility gap by simulating the reproductive life courses of Dutch women

BACKGROUNDCouples in Europe have fewer children than they intend to, resulting in a gap between intended family size and completed fertility.This is partly because first-pregnancy attempts are postponed to older reproductive ages, when giving birth is more difficult due to the decline in fecundity and increased probability of miscarriage.Modelling educational differences in prevalence, timing, and stability of coresidential unions together with reproductive behaviour and constraints provides us with information on how postponement relates to completed fertility. OBJECTIVEWe measure the extent to which changes in education, union events, and physiology change the gap between intended family size and coresidential completed cohort fertility for Dutch women born during 1974-1984. METHODSWe perform microsimulations including physiological parameters and detailed information on education and union events.Our model parameters are based on a range of representative data sources, including the Generations and Gender Survey and the Longitudinal Internet studies for the Social Sciences panel.