The <i>Batavia</i> disaster: A new scenario to explain the massacre after the shipwreck

On 4 June 1629, the Batavia was wrecked at the Houtman Abrolhos. After the shipwreck, more than 100 survivors were murdered. The senior merchant Francisco Pelsaert prosecuted the murderers and presented evidence that the murders were planned before the shipwreck. In this article, the trial against the murderers is re-examined using a scenario approach, which provides a framework for rational thinking about evidence and proof in a criminal case. Based on insights from this approach and findings on the impact of waterboarding, the reader learns that another scenario provides a better explanation for what happened. In that scenario, there was no premeditated mutiny. Instead, famine and water scarcity served as catalysts for mass murder. The collapse of existing forms of authority and social organization allowed a group of survivors to seize power and start a massacre. In the final section of the article, the potential of the scenario approach for analysing historical trial records is discussed.