Fatality estimates based on earthquake modeling in the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area

Abstract The Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt has endured multiple significant historical earthquakes, underscoring the need to assess and quantify the potential social impacts of future seismic events. The Guadalajara Metropolitan Area, the second most populated city in Mexico, is located in the western part of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, an active east–west volcanic arc crossed by several fault systems. In this study, we use the main known tectonic structures in and around the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area to propose scenarios for possible earthquakes and estimate the resulting intensities and fatalities in the urban area. Our results indicate a range from hundreds to tens of thousands of estimated fatalities, depending on the scenario. Authorities and disaster management agencies in Jalisco can take advantage of our findings to better prepare for, and respond to, future earthquakes. We carried out a comprehensive analysis on expected intensities and probable casualty figures, providing essential insights for effective disaster management and mitigation strategies.