Potential distribution and future shifts of invasive alien plants in China under climate change

Alien plant invasion is a major environmental issue worldwide, causing significant ecological destruction and economic losses. Understanding and predicting the distribution patterns of various invasive alien plants (IAPs) under future climatic conditions are essential to develop sustainable strategies for ecosystem and biodiversity conservation. Invasion plants are rampant in China and have caused substantial biodiversity and economic losses. While previous studies have predicted the distribution of only a few IAPs, comprehensive descriptions and predictions for the numerous IAPs that pose serious threats are still lacking. Therefore, we utilized the Maximum Entropy Model to predict the spatial distribution of 39 significantly hazardous IAPs across China for the periods 1970–2000, 2041–2060, and 2061–2080, based on 11,100 species occurrence records under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs: SSP 1–2.6, SSP 2–4.5 and SSP 5–8.5). The results show that temperature-related variables had a greater influence on species distribution than precipitation-related factors. Spatially, IAP richness during 1970–2000 was higher in southeastern China, particularly in coastal provinces such as Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian, and Taiwan, but lower in the northwest. Under future climate scenarios, suitable areas for these invasive species are predicted to shift westward, with the longest migration distance being 67.65 km under SSP 5–8.5. In protected areas (PAs), although suitable areas for IAPs are projected to decrease slightly, over 90 % of small PAs would remain suitable for high IAP richness. Overall, our study highlights a high IAP richness in southeastern China, a predicted westward shift in their future distribution and an elevated invasion risk faced by small reserves. These findings offer critical insights for biodiversity conservation, highlighting the urgent need for effective measures to mitigate IAPs invasions, particularly in southeastern China and small PAs.