Understanding China’s engagements in African conflict resolution: the counter-piracy campaign in the Gulf of Aden

Why has China exhibited seemingly inconsistent or even contradictory positions in its contributions to conflict resolution in different African conflicts? There is considerable literature exploring the determinants of China’s policy, but thus far there is no analytical framework for analyzing how the policy-making process works and the role of Chinese elites within this process. This article applies data from within-case process tracing and elite interviews with Chinese foreign-policy makers to a detailed case study of China’s engagements in the counter-piracy campaign in the Gulf of Aden. The principal finding is that China’s level of participation is determined jointly by three independent variables: the level of endogenous threats to China’s economic interests, the international expectations about China’s engagement, and the host country’s receptiveness to external intervention. These are translated through the Chinese elites’ perceptions into the policy outcome. By incorporating these factors into an analysis of China’s decision-making, this article contributes to a better understanding of China’s foreign policy decision-making process in the African context.