Implications of climate change on food security in SAARC countries: A panel data approach

Natural disasters, population growth, global climate change, and political instability are threatening food security, especially in South Asia. The research study aims to determine the relationship between climate change and food security in South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries during the period from 2001 to 2021. The panel data technique is adopted for the empirical analysis because it addresses the time and country effect, providing accurate research findings. The Food Production Index is used as the dependent variable and works as proxy indicator for food security. Pre-estimation tests including, the Breusch-pagan test for heteroscedasticity, the Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) for Multicollinearity and Woolridge test for serial autocorrelation, are conducted before panel regression estimation. The model stability is tested by post regression diagnostics of Hansen and Hausman specification test. The empirical results revealed that temperature, rainfall and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita are governing food security. In contrast, population growth has negative effect on food security, demonstrating that South Asia’s burgeoning population hinders progress towards achieving food security . Inflation and land area under cereal cultivation exhibits insignificant influence. The findings showed that both climate-related and non-climate-related variables affect food security. Hence, the development of interdisciplinary and effective food security policies is essential for ensuring social protection and address food security challenges in SAARC countries.