The Impact of the "Belt and Road" Initiative on the Trade of the Countries Along the Route and the Role of China

Since the launch of the BRI (BRI) in 2013, it has become a key platform for promoting economic cooperation among participating countries. Drawing on the BRI Aviation Trade Index, Maritime Silk Road Trade Index, and various related economic indicators, this paper employs the ARIMA (Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average) model and a multi-dimensional comprehensive evaluation model to systematically assess trade and economic growth in BRI countries. The analysis shows that, since the initiative’s implementation, trade volumes and gross domestic product (GDP) in these countries have generally been on the rise, with countries maintaining close economic ties with China showing particularly strong performance. Through comprehensive evaluation, the paper further examines the BRI's impact on industrial restructuring, investment flows, and national income, while also identifying the challenges it faces in promoting regional economic development. In response to these challenges, the paper proposes a set of policy recommendations to provide guidance for future international cooperation.