Extreme weather events and crop diversification: climate change adaptation in Brazil

Extreme weather events can considerably impact agriculture because crop production depends on favorable climatic conditions. Additionally, extreme climatic events are expected to increase in frequency and intensity. However, crop diversification helps to reduce vulnerability to climate risks. In this context, the present research analyzes the process of agricultural diversification, understanding its determinants and role as an adaptive measure in Brazil. Thus, fixed-effects panel models allow us to estimate the effects of extreme weather indices on crop diversification in 3818 Brazilian municipalities. We find that Consecutive Dry Days (CDD), Dry Days (Rn1mm), and Hot days (TX90p) positively affect diversification, while for Frosts (FD) and Extreme Precipitation Days (R20mm), there are non-statistically significant effects. So, the response to diversification as an adaptive strategy would depend on the type of climatic shock. Results show that access to technical assistance, farm size, and corn production significantly influenced diversification. Then, we analyze the effect of climate change on diversification according to future scenarios. Based on simulations, Brazilian municipalities would diversify their crops as the climate scenario is expected to get more severe. The simulations predict that the frequency of hot days will increase between 2045 and 2065. Therefore, crop diversification is expected to increase in both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. These results can help promote the use of resilient technologies by considering the types of extreme weather events and regional differences and tailoring policies to meet the specific challenges farmers face in each region.