Perceived Social Mobility and Populist Attitudes

ABSTRACT Objectives This study aims to investigate the impact of perceived downward mobility on populist attitudes. Intergenerational downward mobility breaks the promise that new generations should meet the living standards of their parents, a crucial component of the order and political legitimacy of the postwar decades in high‐income democracies. We argue that this frustrated expectation fuels populism. Methods We use data from a cross‐national survey conducted in eight European countries in the aftermath of the Great Recession. The survey includes a valid and reliable measure of populist attitudes and a measure of perceived social mobility. Results Results show a direct effect of perceived downward mobility on populist attitudes. The relationship is robust to different controls and consistent across the eight countries. We also find that socioeconomic factors moderate this relationship due to diverse expectations of social mobility and the different appeal that the populist discourse generates among various social groups. Conclusions These findings refine the literature on the socioeconomics of populism by nuancing the established connection between low educational attainment, socioeconomic factors and populist attitudes. The article also contributes to the literature on the consequences of downward mobility.