An Empirical Investigation of Threshold Effects on the Relationship between Sustainable Energy and Trade Balance in Africa

This study assesses the impact of energy resource depletion on the trade balance of 52 African countries from 1990 to 2023, considering key factors such as external debt, energy prices, and CO2 emissions. Employing a threshold regression model (PTR), the analysis distinguishes three regimes of energy depletion to examine how fossil fuel dependence affects economic sustainability. The results show that countries undergoing an energy transition experience a gradual improvement in their trade balance thanks to the integration of renewable energies, although debt and energy prices remain major obstacles. This study highlights the importance of sustainable energy policies to enhance long-term economic resilience in African countries.