Would the occurrence of a Maunder-like solar minimum reverse the observed climate change?

This study examines a scenario combining a prolonged solar minimum, like the historical Maunder Minimum, with the increased CO2 emissions characteristic of the industrial era. Two scenarios were developed in NCAR/CESM 2.0 implemented at LAMMOC/UFF to create simulations from 1850 to 2000, it contrasts differing radiative forcings from 1950 onward—one reflecting actual observed changes, including rising CO2 levels, and the other simulating a decrease in solar output like that during the Maunder Minimum but with continued CO2 growth. The results were validated against ERA5 data and 20th-century reanalysis. By calculating meridional averages at 30-degree latitude intervals, distinct regional impacts of the Maunder Minimum were identified. Notably the simulated Maunder Minimum reduced global warming by and even mitigated 70 % in HS in the last decade of the 20th century. However, this attenuation was lower in the HN, especially in the 30–60N region where no attenuation was observed. • The NCAR/CESM 2.0 simulations manage to capture the evolution of global warming in the present climate. • A current Maunder-like solar minimum could lessen climate change effects mainly in the SH and parts of the NH. • Yet, this model shows a Maunder-type solar minimum wouldn't impact the 30–60N region, dense with people and GHG emissions. Plain Language Summary: In this study it was possible to observe that even if solar activity were to decrease to the same level as during the last little ice age, the effects of climate change due to anthropogenic actions would not be reversed, only attenuated in some regions of the planet, mainly in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Northern Hemisphere and, more specifically, in the region between 30 and 60N, the effects of this solar minimum were not perceived, perhaps because this is the region where the greatest GHG emissions are concentrated. This means that there would be no point in waiting for a prolonged solar minimum to slow down or reverse current climate change, as this would most likely not be enough. In other words, even though it is a computer simulation, this study provides a warning to the world's population that our only alternative is to urgently reduce GHG emissions in order to prevent the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events from increasing.