Impact of China–Africa agricultural trade on food security: facts and quantitative analysis

The COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions have introduced significant uncertainty into global value chains, posing challenges to food security in both African countries and China. Agricultural trade offers a solution to the mismatches between food supply and demand. This study used a structural multi-country general equilibrium trade model to assess the welfare impacts of agricultural trade between China and Africa. It examines key patterns in China–Africa agricultural trade, followed by a model framework and empirical analysis. The results indicate that African countries have yet to fully exploit their agricultural trade potential. Greater trade liberalization between China and Africa could substantially enhance welfare in African countries by increasing real incomes and improving household access to food. While a small number of African countries currently dominate exports to China, the removal of trade barriers and deeper agricultural cooperation could enable a broader range of countries to benefit over time.