Mathematical Analysis and Management Strategies for Controlling an Infectious Disease: Case Study of <i>Bursaphelenchus xylophilus</i>

ABSTRACT The outbreak of pine wilt affliction is linked to a significant pathogen Bursaphelenchus xylophilus . It causes the dysfunction of water‐conducting in pines, leading to the sudden death of trees. Monochamus alternatus acts as a vector for this nematode, which transfers into healthy pines during feeding. This study investigates the transmission mechanism of pine wilt disease, a system of first‐order nonlinear ODEs, as the foundation for a mathematical model. A precise expression for the reproduction number has been identified, serving as a threshold parameter. The system's equilibria have been determined, and their ultimate behavior has been established. The model's validity is confirmed by applying it to accurate data on infectious pines. Results indicate that the model's predictions align closely with actual values for an appropriate parameter set range. Critical parameters that significantly influence disease transmission have been identified. These key parameters are further validated using an artificial neural network approach. Factors impacting infectious pines and bark beetles are analyzed, leading to the development of effective control measures, which are subsequently evaluated numerically to assess their efficacy.