Habitat Suitability Shifts of Eucommia ulmoides in Southwest China Under Climate Change Projections

As a Chinese endemic species with dual medicinal-industrial importance, <i>Eucommia ulmoides</i> faces habitat challenges under climate change. Using 21 bioclimatic variables and 704 occurrence records, we modeled current and future (2021-2100) distributions via MaxEnt 3.4.4 and ArcGIS 10.8. The results indicate the following: (1) current optimal habitats cluster in the mid-elevation valleys of Daba-Wuling Mountains (Guizhou-Chongqing core); (2) SSP5-8.5 projections suggest a 19.2% reduction in high-suitability areas by 2081-2100 versus SSP1-2.6; and (3) distribution centroids migrate southward under both scenarios. Our multi-temporal analysis provides actionable intelligence for ex situ conservation and agroforestry planning.