Advancing Heat Health Risk Assessment: Hotspot Identification of Heat Stress and Risk Across Municipalities in Algiers, Algeria

With accelerating surface warming trends in urban regions, cities like Algiers are increasingly exposed to extreme heat, contributing to a growing concern over heat-related illnesses. For a comprehensive long-term assessment (2001–2023) of heat-related risks in Algiers, multi-decade satellite, meteorological, and census data were used in this study to map and assess spatial patterns of the Heat Health Risk Index (HHRI) within the framework established by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) incorporating hazard, exposure and vulnerability components. The Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) was then calculated to assess thermal stress levels during the same period. Following this, the study addressed a critical research gap by coupling the HHRI and UTCI and identified hotspots using the Getis-Ord Gi* statistical analysis tool. Our findings reveal that the intensity of HHRI has increased over time since “very-low” risk areas had an outstanding decrease (93%) and a 6 °C UTCI rise over 23 years reaching the “very strong heat stress” level. The coupled index demonstrated greater and different risk areas compared to the HHRI alone, suggesting that the coupling of both indicators enhances the sensitivity of heat risk assessment. Finally, persistently identified hotspots in central and eastern regions call for localized, targeted interventions in those areas and highlight the value of remote sensing in informing policymakers and enhancing climate resilience.