Machine Learning-Based Prediction Models for Healthcare Outcomes in Patients Participating in Cardiac Rehabilitation

Purpose: Cardiac rehabilitation (CR) has been proven to reduce mortality and morbidity in patients with cardiovascular disease. Machine learning (ML) techniques are increasingly used to predict healthcare outcomes in various fields of medicine including CR. This systemic review aims to perform critical appraisal of existing ML-based prognosis predictive model within CR and identify key research gaps in this area. Review Methods: A systematic literature search was conducted in Scopus, PubMed, Web of Science, and Google Scholar from the inception of each database to January 28, 2024. The data extracted included clinical features, predicted outcomes, model development, and validation as well as model performance metrics. Included studies underwent quality assessments using the IJMEDI and Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool checklist. Summary: A total of 22 ML-based clinical models from 7 studies across multiple phases of CR were included. Most models were developed using smaller patient cohorts from 41 to 227, with one exception involving 2280 patients. The prediction objectives ranged from patient intention to initiate CR to graduate from outpatient CR along with interval physiological and psychological progression in CR. The best-performing ML models reported area under the receiver operating characteristics curve between 0.82 and 0.91, with sensitivity from 0.77 to 0.95, indicating good prediction capabilities. However, none of them underwent calibration or external validation. Most studies raised concerns about bias. Readiness of these models for implementation into practice is questionable. External validation of existing models and development of new models with robust methodology based on larger populations and targeting diverse clinical outcomes in CR are needed. KEY PERSPECTIVE What is novel? This systematic review is the first to critically appraise existing machine learning (ML)-based clinical prognostic models in cardiac rehabilitation (CR). It identifies key research gaps in ML application in CR and provides constructive suggestions for improving the quality of ML models specifically in CR. What are the clinical and/or research implications? The review demonstrates various clinical challenges in the CR setting that ML models have been used to address and their corresponding outcomes. It reveals potential limitations in existing models and offers recommendations to enhance the readiness of current and future models for implementation in clinical settings as clinical decision-support tools.