Abstract 2335: Predicting cirrhosis risk in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease

Abstract Background: Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) affects about 32% of adults worldwide and is projected to increase in many parts of the world. Liver cancer is a recognized complication of end-stage MASLD. An estimated 20% of patients with MASLD will progress to cirrhosis, a premalignant state in liver cancer evolution. Because MASLD is usually asymptomatic, its progression to cirrhosis can be difficult to detect early for timely intervention. There are currently no known biological markers for predicting cirrhosis risk in patients with MASLD, making it challenging to identify patients at risk of disease progression. The aim of this study was to identify plasma protein biomarkers that can predict future cirrhosis development in patients with MASLD. Methods: We performed a nested case-control study among patients with MASLD at baseline who later progressed to cirrhosis and control patients with MASLD at baseline who never progressed to cirrhosis, matched on age at MASLD diagnosis (± 1-year), sex, race, year of blood sample collection, and length of follow-up (± 1-year). An aptamer-based array (SOMAscan™) platform was used to measure over 7000 proteins in baseline plasma samples obtained from the participants. The study sample was split 70/30 for training and validation analyses. We identified plasma protein biomarkers significantly differentially expressed in the training sample, adjusting for multiple testing with Bonferroni-corrected p-values. The significant set of proteins from the training set was used for prediction modeling in the validation sample, computing prediction metrics (area under the curve [AUC], sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy). Results: A total of 64 MASLD to cirrhosis cases matched to 64 MASLD controls were included in the analysis. Six protein biomarkers (PTPRU, ATL2, MFAP4, C7, CSTN2, and COLEC11) were overexpressed in cases, compared to controls, in the training data. Prediction modeling of the six-protein biomarker panel in the validation sample yielded an AUC = 0.85, sensitivity = 0.72, specificity = 0.78, and accuracy = 0.75. Conclusions: We have identified a panel of six plasma protein biomarkers that predict risk of cirrhosis development in patients with MASLD. These proteins could serve as candidates for future mechanistic studies on MASLD progression to advanced liver disease. If validated in larger studies and with assays suitable for clinical laboratory testing (e.g., ELISA), these protein biomarkers could be useful clinically for cirrhosis risk prediction in MASLD patients, and hence those at risk of liver cancer, enabling timely surveillance or interventions to prevent disease progression. Citation Format: Pasang Sherpa, Sebastian M. Armasu, Jacob A. Frank, Irene K. Yan, Kirk J. Wangensteen, Tushar Patel, Samuel O. Antwi. Predicting cirrhosis risk in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2025; Part 1 (Regular Abstracts); 2025 Apr 25-30; Chicago, IL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2025;85(8_Suppl_1):Abstract nr 2335.