Forecasting the Area of Petroleum Product Spots in the Waters of the Moscow Basin of Inland Waterways

The article continues the study dedicated to the evaluation of the areal properties of oil contamination and the detection of significant factors determining processes of petroleum product spread and weathering in conditions of various inland waterway basins. The article considers the waters of the Moscow basin. Significant factors that determine contamination processes include the following: inter-soil and flood hydrological regimes, temperature characteristics of the environment, properties of petroleum products, meteorological conditions, and characteristics of the coastline. The experiment has been planned with the STATISTICA 8.0 software using a fractional two-level factor plan of Box and Hunter, mathematical modeling of spill scenarios in the Pisces 2 system. Modeled areas have been developed for the waters of the Rybinsk reservoir and the upper Volga section. During the studies, it has been established that in conditions of the Moscow basin, the areal properties of petroleum spots are most affected by the volume of the spill, wave height, and description of shores. The result of the study is ranking the factors by significance for the size of the spill spot area. By their significance, factors have been divided into four groups: extremely, specifically, highly, and moderately significant. The results of the study have been applied to the plans for the prevention and elimination of oil and petroleum product spills in the Moscow basin of inland waterways.