Remote sensing and spatial analysis for estimating vegetation fire risk in the Puglia Region

Forest fires represent a growing threat to ecosystems and communities in the EMEA region (Europe, Middle East, and North Africa), with the year 2023 ranking among the five most critical years since 2000. In Italy, forest fires showed a significant intensification, with a 36% increase in total burned areas compared to 2022, affecting 1073 km2 of territory, of which 157 km2 were covered by forests. The analysis of affected areas’ composition revealed that 63% were evergreen broadleaf forests, 17% conifers, and 15% deciduous broadleaf forests. Climate change is amplifying the problem, extending fire seasons and increasing the frequency of “megafires”, events of intensity exceeding the capability of traditional containment systems. This trend is expanding into Central and Northern Europe, regions traditionally less exposed to these risks. Notably, over 90% of fires in the EU are of anthropogenic origin, with Italy recording only 2% of fires due to natural causes. In response to these challenges, we present an innovative methodology for fire risk assessment that was applied to the Puglia Region. The approach is based on the development of a Global Fire Risk Index that integrates both hazard and vulnerability factors, aligning with European Community directives. The methodology relies on open-source GIS systems to process territorial data with a 20-meter resolution, and includes morphological, vegetational, climatic, and anthropic variables. The analysis was initially conducted at the single pixel level and subsequently aggregated at the municipal scale, thus offering a dual perspective: an overview for administrative planning and a detailed analysis for localized interventions. This methodological approach, beyond its scientific value, has been integrated into the 2023-2025 Forest Fire Prevention, Prediction, and Active Fighting Plan of the Puglia Region, providing an operational tool for fire risk management in the territory. Our results significantly contributes to the evolution of fire planning tools, responding to the need for more sophisticated approaches to address increasingly complex risk scenarios influenced by climate and socioeconomic changes.