Modeling Market Dynamics in the Digital Economy

The article proposes models for forecasting market dynamics in the digital economy, specifically: forecasting the number of vacancies in Ukraine’s IT market, taking into account the priority of digital transformations. For the conducted research, information on the number of vacancies in Ukraine in categories such as Analyst, Project Manager, Product Manager, Data Science, QA, Big Data, Finance was used. Adaptive forecasting methods were employed to develop vacancy dynamics models. For each of the categories, the best adaptive forecasting models were selected, optimal adaptation parameters were determined based on the minimum average absolute percentage error of the forecast, and the forecast values for the number of vacancies for each category were identified. The results obtained can be considered as a decision-making support tool for the system of preventing imbalances in various areas of the IT business and adapting educational programs to reduce the duration of structural unemployment. It is concluded that according to forecast data, there will be a steady demand for specialists in the categories of Big Data, Project Manager, and QA. The highest growth rates are shown by the number of vacancies in the Finance category, which indicates the need to adapt the elective discipline block of educational programs in fields such as information technology and management, administration (finance), and the feasibility of creating interdisciplinary educational programs. According to forecast data, the IT market in Ukraine shows a steady trend of recovery after a decrease in business activity levels in this sphere at the beginning of 2022, with an increase in vacancies predicted in both technical and non-technical professional categories. The IT sector has proven to be resilient to the impact of shocks, significantly affecting employment, the level of income of the population, tax revenues to the budget, exports, and reducing the burden on the social security system. The IT market is currently in a stage of recovery and growth and is a promising area for the development of the Ukrainian economy, considering the established priority of digital transformations.