The Resilience of the Endogenous Potential of the Regions of Ukraine: Context of the Sociopolitical Crisis of 2013–2014

The article examines the resilience of the endogenous potential of regions of Ukraine during the sociopolitical crisis of late 2013 and the military aggression of Russia in early 2014. For the purpose of the research, an authors’ own methodology for calculating resilience parameters has been proposed: the depth of shock, the resistance of the region to shock, the recovery period, a conditional indicator of the speed of recovery, and the relative capacity of the region for post-shock recovery. The calculations were based on statistical data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine (in particular, indicators of GRP per capita (in US dollar terms), exports of goods, the volume of capital investments (per person in dollar equivalent), employment of the working-age population, as well as indicators that characterize the conditions in the labor market of regions in Ukraine). The study revealed the greatest loss of resilience as a result of the sociopolitical crisis of 2013–2014 in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions of Ukraine. In the context of the consequences of the russian invasion of Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea, the losses of regions in Ukraine due to the severance of diplomatic, trade, and socioeconomic relations with russia and the reorientation towards the European market for goods and services are shown. It is found that in terms of goods exports, the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, as well as a number of regions in northeastern and central Ukraine, experienced the deepest shock. Conversely, the remoteness of the regions of Western Ukraine, as well as the Odesa and Kyiv regions from the combat zone, their strong logistics potential, and integration with EU markets allowed these regions to lead the top five regions with the lowest shock depth in terms of goods exports. A decrease in the resilience of the endogenous potential of the regions of Ukraine in terms of investment attraction has been identified, which occurred as a result of decreased trust from both domestic and foreign investors in the Ukrainian economy due to the events of late 2013–2014. Also, the social resilience of the country’s regions under the shock conditions of 2013–2014 was analyzed. It has been found that its decline was primarily caused by fluctuations in the labor markets of the country’s regions. Further on, it was discovered that in the eastern regions and areas geographically close to the front line, the demand from employers for workers to fill available job positions sharply decreased, while the workload per vacant position increased, and in the western regions (which are further away from the combat zone), the situation was opposite. The reason for this is because the eastern regions and most regions of southern and central Ukraine are highly urbanized areas with a high level of industrial production concentration and an extensive transportation network, etc. Thus, in the «pre-shock» period, the demand for labor was high here. It is found that the shock of 2013–2014 intensified informal employment in all regions of the country. It is also revealed that the shock of 2013–2014 intensified informal employment across all regions of the country. Given the heterogeneity of socioeconomic development in the regions of Ukraine, the necessity of developing a «personalized» and active-oriented conception for strengthening the resilience of the regions of Ukraine, taking into account the strengths and weaknesses of each region, has been emphasized.