Multi-Objective Model for Efficient, Equitable, and Sustainable Water Allocation Under Uncertainty: A Case Study of Namhan River Basin, South Korea

Water allocation under uncertainty remains a critical challenge in water-scarce regions. This study presents an integrated water allocation model that explicitly incorporates uncertainty through stochastic streamflow simulations and addresses multiple objectives—efficiency, equity, and sustainability—within a unified framework. The model uses historical inflow data, future demand projections, and a multi-objective optimization approach based on the NSGA-II to generate trade-off solutions. To support decision-making, TOPSIS is applied to identify the most balanced allocation strategies from the Pareto-optimal sets. The model is applied to the Namhan River Basin in South Korea, with two key applications: (1) developing adaptive water allocation strategies under dry, normal, and wet hydrological conditions, and (2) proposing targeted infrastructure enhancements—including new dams, transmission lines, and intake points—to address vulnerabilities in dry years. The results demonstrate that the proposed model improves supply reliability, economic efficiency, equity across regions, and sustainability through river maintenance and reservoir storage compliance. This study provides a generalizable and practical decision-support tool for long-term water planning under climate and demand uncertainties, offering actionable insights for water-deficient basins.