Towards Maritime Transport Decarbonization: Technological and Emissions Pathways

Abstract With both regional authorities and corporate entities declaring net-zero greenhouse gas ambitions over the last decade, the assessment and development of potential solutions has accelerated. One of the key sectors emitting around 25% of energy-related greenhouse gases is transportation. Although some segments of the transportation sector have instituted concrete plans with strict regulatory requirements, the maritime sector faces significant challenges in de-carbonization, driven by the limited availability of lowemission fuels and commercialized zero-emission vessels compared to its high energy demand. In this work, we develop the Mobility and Energy Transportation Analysis Model, a python-based optimization model to investigate the maritime sector's current and projected energy demand and a technology sales forecast based on different scenarios, including the latest IMO aspirations to reach carbon neutrality by or around 2050 on a Well to Wake basis. Along with introducing lower carbon fuels as alternative refueling options for conventional vessels, we explore the market opportunities of mobile carbon capture (MCC), also referred to as Onboard Carbon Capture and Storage (OCCS) through 2050. To accurately assess this technology, a techno-economic analysis is essential to determine marginal abatement costs compared to alternative decarbonization technologies. Considering consumer decision making as a key factor in shaping the future of marine vessels represents the novelty of our methodology. An additional novelty of this work comes from the detailed cost categories taken into consideration in the analysis, including intangible costs associated with MCC system cost components for different capture rates, as well as the total cost of owning each vessel technology. Based on the study results, MCC could be a viable alternative technology to decarbonize the marine fleet towards complying with IMO's regulations.