Resilient generation planning considering long periods of low-RES output

Abstract The growing concerns over mitigating climate change effects resulted in power system planning and generation expansion strategies that aim in increasing penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources (RES) to fulfill the national energy and climate plans (NECPs) of countries worldwide. However, the variable and intermittent nature of RES output, compounded by uncertainties arising from climatic and weather changes, poses significant challenges. These challenges necessitate careful consideration in generation planning and in determining the operational reserves of RES-rich power systems to ensure resilience. This paper employs a generation capacity operational planning method based on the Screening Curve Method (SCM), assuming various levels of large RES penetration and diverse spinning generation reserve policies, necessary to cope with various levels of RES generation deficits, to guarantee power system resilience. The proposed approach can be used to assess the overall reduction of capacity and decommissioning of thermal units, while ensuring resilient operation against various levels of annual RES generation deficits. Furthermore, an approximation of the total annual system operation cost is also provided, considering the impact of the employed spinning reserve policies.