Strategic fleet replacement for the electrification of heavy-duty road freight transportation

Electric trucks (ETs) have emerged as a promising solution for the decarbonization of road freight transportation. However, their adoption in the fleets of logistics companies poses considerable challenges. Fleet managers must balance trade-offs between investment in ETs and diesel trucks (DTs), evaluate the operational implications of evolving fleet compositions, and plan for the required depot charging infrastructure investments. To address these challenges, we propose a mixed-integer programming model to optimize truck purchasing and salvaging decisions over a multi-year planning horizon. The main novelty of this model lies in its explicit consideration of depot charging infrastructure investments and the use of public fast charging for long-haul transport. We apply the model to analyze the technical, economic, and organizational factors influencing the deployment of ETs into heavy-duty fleets. Our results demonstrate that adopting ETs can lead to lower total costs compared to fleets composed entirely of DTs. However, achieving those cost reductions hinges on the available budgets for substantial upfront capital investments and upgrades to the electricity grid connection at the depot. Moreover, the pace and scale of ET adoption are heavily influenced by the geographical distribution of customers. Specifically, when ETs can operate solely with depot charging, rapid adoption is optimal. In contrast, reliance on public fast charging makes the adoption of ETs slower and less certain. Current pricing for public fast-charging services remains prohibitively high, limiting the widespread adoption of ETs even if the purchasing costs for ETs continue to decline.