Reliability-based analysis and residual life forecasting for corrosion-affected RC structures

Corrosion-induced deterioration of reinforced concrete (RC) structures is a major challenge that compromises structural reliability and reduces service life. This paper introduces a holistic dual-method framework that utilizes two distinct yet complementary methods: probabilistic modeling and a simplified engineering method. The probabilistic approach incorporates uncertainties in material properties and geometric dimensions, enabling realistic assessments of failure probability and residual service life under varying exposure conditions. This level of detail supports long-term planning, optimized maintenance, and risk-informed decision-making. In parallel, the simplified engineering method offers a practical tool for rapid structural evaluation, facilitating timely decisions on repair and restoration. The novelty of this study lies in leveraging these two complementary approaches to achieve both analytical depth and operational efficiency in the assessment of corrosion-damaged RC structures. Results show a significant reduction in the reliability index, from 3.945 (no corrosion) to 2.697 at 65 % corrosion, with a reduction in residual service life of up to 75 %. Minor corrosion (up to 20 %) causes less than a 10 % reduction. The simplified method proves effective for rapid adaptation to aggressive exposure, with protective measures reducing corrosion rates by 22 % and extending residual life by up to 65 %. By combining precision and practicality, the proposed framework serves as a robust decision-support tool for engineers and asset managers, supporting both long-term planning and urgent field-level interventions.