The future of urban cycling: A predictive framework for climate change

Urban cycling plays a vital role in sustainable urban mobility. It reduces the environmental impact of transportation and promotes public health. While urban cycling is key to combating climate change, future climate conditions may significantly influence active transportation. In this context, this study proposes a predictive framework that integrates weather-based ridership models with downscaled climate projections. The framework aims to predict cycling demand under various climate scenarios. Using Montréal as a case study, we explore how projected climate changes could affect urban cycling in a cold-climate North American city. By the 2050s, Montréal is expected to experience warmer and drier conditions, with ridership projected to increase by 8.7% to 19.9% across different scenarios. The most notable growth is anticipated during shoulder months, such as April, October, and November, due to more favorable weather conditions. These findings emphasize the need to adapt bicycle infrastructure and services to accommodate evolving demand in a changing climate.