Safe Tidal Passage Mode for Locks in Estuaries: A Strategy Integrating Data Assimilation with Hydrodynamic Modeling

In estuaries, tidal passage mode can effectively alleviate ship congestion in lock chambers during peak periods. However, due to complex water flow patterns that may cause safety incidents such as ship rollover and collisions, this method is rarely used. Given the increasing shipping demand in estuaries, there is a critical need to understand the hydrodynamic characteristics of locks influenced by both tidal and fluvial dynamics. To address this gap and overcome the shortage of hydrological data, we developed a precise simulation of the flow field within lock chambers by integrating a hydrodynamic model with data assimilation technology. Based on the real-time data from limited noncontact radar, we reveal the overall hydrodynamic features. By analyzing the correlation between surface flow velocity and upstream/downstream water levels, we derived a linear regression model that quantifies the impact of water-level differences on flow velocity. Our results show that the linear regression model accurately forecasts the optimal tidal passage time window, providing theoretical support for safe lock operations in estuaries. This study enhances our understanding of hydrodynamic behavior in lock systems and offers practical tools for optimizing gate operation schedules, contributing to safer and more efficient maritime infrastructure in estuaries.