Heterogeneous Impact of NG CARES Program Participation on Productivity and Food Security of Rural Farming Households in Northwestern Nigeria

The Nigeria Community Action for Resilience and Economic Stimulus (NG CARES) Program was designed to support vulnerable populations, particularly smallholder farmers, in response to external shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic. This study examines the heterogeneous impact of participation in the NG CARES Program on crop yield and food security among rural farming households in northwestern Nigeria. We collected data from 723 farming households, consisting of 361 program participants and 362 non-participants, using a multi-stage sampling approach. A logit model was employed to analyze the determinants of program participation, while the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS) assessed food security levels. We used Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to estimate technical efficiency, a proxy for crop yield. We also applied the Endogenous Treatment Effect Model (ETEM) to assess the heterogeneous impact of program participation. The results indicate that program participation significantly improved crop yield, with participants demonstrating higher technical efficiency than non-participants. However, the impact varied across demographic groups, with older farmers benefiting the most, while middle-aged and young farmers experienced mixed effects. Farmers with only a primary education also experienced notable increases in yield, while those with secondary or university education did not. Food security outcomes also varied, with the most substantial improvements observed among young farmers. Regional disparities further highlighted the need for localized policy interventions. The study concludes that while NG CARES has enhanced agricultural productivity and food security, targeted modifications are necessary to ensure equitable benefits across different farmer categories and regions.