Incorporating Firm Heterogeneity: A Study on Supply Chain Disruption Risk Propagation and Network Resilience

现代供应链作为一个紧密耦合的复杂系统，极易受到中断风险的影响，构建安全稳定、富有韧性的供应链网络具有重要意义。为探究影响中断风险传播及韧性的关键因素，本研究结合复杂网络理论与传染病模型，综合考虑现实供应链网络的复杂性特征及企业风险能力的异质性，构建复杂供应链网络中断风险传播模型。同时，基于多维度韧性度量框架，评估不同实验情景下的供应链韧性。研究发现具有无标度属性的供应链网络表现出更好的风险抵御能力，且中断风险在“枢纽”位置扩散速度更快，保护“枢纽”企业对韧性提升具有显著影响。As a tightly coupled and complex system, modern supply chain is highly susceptible to interruption risks, and building a secure, stable, and resilient supply chain network is of great significance. To explore the key factors of the disruption propagation and resilience of supply chain network, this article combines complex network theory and epidemic model, comprehensively considers the complexity characteristics of real supply chain network and the heterogeneity of enterprise risk capabilities, to construct a disruption propagation model of complex supply chain network. Meanwhile, based on a multidimensional resilience measurement framework, we evaluate the supply chain resilience under different experimental scenarios. Research has found that supply chain network with scale-free attributes exhibits better resistance ability, disruption risks spread faster in the “hub” location, and protecting “hub” enterprises has a significant impact on resilience enhancement.