Assessment of risks of failure to achieve target values of indicators for an organization’s intellectual capital based on a fuzzy model

The processes of formation and development of intellectual capital in the digital economy are ill structured processes occurring in conditions of a significant increase in the speed and unpredictability of changes in the external environment. This makes it extremely difficult to use previous experience and probabilistic forecasts when assessing the risks of failure to achieve strategic goals for the development of the intellectual capital of an organization. At the same time, undesirable deviations in achieving these goals can lead to significant negative consequences. In this regard, there is a need to develop appropriate fuzzy methods and models, all of which determines the relevance of this work. The purpose of this study was to develop a fuzzy method for assessing the risks of failure to achieve the strategic goals of an organization in the field of intellectual capital development. The method is based on a fuzzy model developed by the authors which allows us to take into account the uncertainty tolerance of the decision maker. Testing the method on the example of a specific organization showed the possibility of its practical applicability. We provide quantitative assessments and qualitative interpretations of the risk levels of failure to achieve target indicators for the development of the intellectual capital of an organization (a large regional university).