Relative Rest Correlates to Winning Percentage in 2022 National Football League Season: A Preliminary Study

The purpose of this investigation was to examine whether season average relative rest (RR) influences winning percentage (WIN%) in professional American Football. We define RR as the difference in rest intervals between teams from prior games. To address this, we analyzed each game played in the 2022 NFL season (n=271) and calculated rest intervals between each successive game for each team. The rest interval was defined as the number of days between the schedule start for each successive game, with all teams being assigned a rest interval of 0 during Week 1. Each team’s RR was then determined by subtracting the opposing team’s rest interval. The RR for each game for all teams were then averaged across the season. Subsequently, a correlation between season average RR and WIN% was performed and a tertial split in season average RR was conducted to separate teams into HIGH (teams 1-11), MID (teams 12-21) and LOW (teams 22-32). A one-way ANOVA comparing WIN% between HIGH, MID and LOW was then conducted while independent samples t-tests were employed to assess season average RR between teams with records above (WIN) and below 0.500 (LOSE) and those qualifying (PO) and not qualifying (NPO) for the playoffs. Data indicate that a significant positive relationship exists between WIN% and season average RR (r=0.338; p = 0.029). Moreover, successful teams (WIN/PO) had significantly greater season average RR than unsuccessful teams (LOSE/NPO). Therefore, a team’s rest interval, relative to their opponent was associated with the outcome of the competition during the 2022 NFL season.