Oil dependency and democratic outcomes in the Middle East: a comparative analysis of resource-rich and resource-scarce states

Abstract This study compares governance models in resource-rich and resource-scarce states, exploring how oil dependence and foreign aid reliance affect political stability, democratization, and economic development in the Middle East. The findings suggest that oil-rich states such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, dependent on oil rents to support welfare systems, have entrenched authoritarian regimes, limiting political competition and impeding democratization. In contrast, resource-scarce countries such as Jordan and Lebanon have used foreign aid to maintain fiscal stability, but external intervention has failed to trigger meaningful structural reforms, worsening governance vulnerabilities. By integrating Rentier State Theory and Resource Dependence Theory, the paper emphasizes a multidimensional approach to understanding governance complexities. Furthermore, the study suggests new research directions on energy transitions’ effects on political-economic structures in the Middle East, focusing on how governance models must adapt to external changes and internal challenges.