Anticipating the Storm: Expectations (not experience) of extreme weather predict public support for climate policies

The psychological effects of experiencing climate change-related extreme weather events have spurred researchers' interest. While existing literature suggests a direct link between first-hand experiences of extreme weather and policy support, we propose an interplay between experience and expectations of future extreme weather events. Through a cross-sectional survey of 1295 participants across four countries, we investigated the mediating effect of extreme weather expectations on the relationship between experience and policy support. Results revealed that expecting more severe future weather conditions was related to supporting climate change mitigation policies, fully mediating the relationship with past experiences. Importantly, climate change concerns emerged as a proximal determinant of support, mediating the relationship of expectations. These results seek to provide a nuance to the relationship between past experiences and policy support by suggesting that it is mediated by people's expectations of future extreme weather events. • We assessed a cross-national perspective on extreme weather and climate policy support from 1295 participants (USA, UK, Germany, and Australia). • The direct effect of experience on climate policy support was fully mediated by expecting more severe weather events in the future. • Findings stress the role of public expectations in shaping policy attitudes and highlight the need for longitudinal and experimental research.