THE EVOLUTION OF SINO-ARAB TRADE: TRENDS, CHALLENGES, AND FUTURE PROSPECTS

This study examines the transformation of Sino-Arab trade relations from 2000 to 2024, analyzing key trends, persistent challenges, and future opportunities within a shifting geopolitical landscape. Drawing on trade data from China Customs, UN Comtrade, and policy documents, we highlight three critical developments:(1) trade growth from 15.2B to 430B, fueled by energy interdependence and BRI initiatives; (2) persistent structural imbalances (87% hydrocarbon-based Arab exports vs. China's diversified manufacturing); and (3) operational barriers including logistics inefficiencies and protectionism. Through panel data regression and case studies (Egypt, Syria, Saudi Arabia), we demonstrate how BRI investments (+0.06 coefficient) and economic scale (China GDP elasticity 0.89) drive trade, while political instability shows negligible impact. The study concludes with policy recommendations for fostering sustainable trade diversification, including digital platforms, SME engagement, and financial cooperation. By bridging historical context with contemporary data and employing both qualitative and quantitative methods, this analysis contributes to debates on South-South cooperation in an era of economic rebalancing and offers empirically grounded insights for policymakers and scholars. Keywords: China-Arab trade, Belt and Road Initiative, trade diversification, energy geopolitics, South-South cooperation.