A Comparative Empirical Analysis of Climate Policy Leadership: China and the United States (1988-2024)

This research compares climate policy leadership in China and the United States (1988-2024) by analyzing policy instruments across density, intensity, and consistency dimensions. The U.S. exhibits a cyclical pattern with high variability across four administrative-driven phases, while China shows a linear accelerating trajectory across three phases. U.S. patterns align with punctuated equilibrium theory, with presidential transitions explaining most policy variance. Chinese patterns reflect strategic adaptation, with policy shifts linked to domestic priorities and international positioning. Subnational action increases during U.S. federal disengagement, while Chinese innovation clusters regionally. Our findings challenge regime-performance associations, demonstrating that different political systems offer distinct advantages for climate governance, with implications for multilevel governance design.