Climate change impact in offshore energy resources along the Spanish coasts based on a high-resolution regionally coupled model

The development of offshore renewable energies has accelerated to replace non-renewable sources and meet current energy demand. Hybrid platforms could enhance energy generation and reduce resource variability, though uncertainties remain about the impact of climate change on these resources. This study assesses wind, solar, and wave energy potential in Spanish offshore locations by the late 21st century using a high-resolution regionally coupled ocean-atmosphere model (5 km resolution). Under the RCP8.5 scenario, wind resources show increased seasonal and spatial variability, with gains in northern Spain during winter and summer, and nearly year-round in the Canary Islands. In contrast, wave energy is projected to decrease uniformly, particularly in Atlantic regions, with less impact in the Mediterranean. Solar resources remain nearly unchanged, though variability is expected to decrease. The study emphasizes that while resource levels shift, optimizing hybrid platforms requires addressing variability. Results indicate that in northern Spain, variability is minimized by increasing the share of solar and wave energy, reducing wind dependence. In the Alboran Sea, Canary Islands, and Balearic Islands, wave energy is crucial for reducing variability, as wind and solar resources alone could increase it. Adjusting the proportional use of each energy source is thus essential to optimize offshore energy platforms under future climate scenarios.