INTEGRATING SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT INTO SPATIAL PLANNING: CASE REPUBLIC OF NORTH MACEDONIA

Assessing earthquake risk in regions with moderate to high seismic hazard, such as parts of Republic of North Macedonia, is essential for effective risk management and mitigation strategies. Comprehensive risk assessments enable predictions about where high-intensity earthquakes are most likely to occur and what their potential impacts might be. In the frame of Study for Natural and technical risks in the Republic of North Macedonia, as one of the background documents for the preparation of the Spatial plan of the country for the period 2021-2040, seismic Risk maps have been created. The process of assessing earthquake risk involves analyzing three critical components: hazard, exposure, and vulnerability of the exposed structures. A detailed seismic hazard assessment for North Macedonia has been conducted using data on historical earthquake activity, earth crust models, and active fault characterization. In that manner, a seismic hazard map has been developed. To evaluate the exposure of objects and people in the Republic of North Macedonia, data from the State Statistical Office, including information from the 2021 population census, households, and dwellings, were utilized. Three research papers were selected as key references, providing vulnerability curves and damage matrices for the most common structural systems in the country. Consequently, four sets of vulnerability curves (damage matrices) have been selected for the following structural types: structures constructed with unreinforced masonry prior to 1960, reinforced concrete structures built between 1971 and 1981, reinforced concrete structures with a height of up to 10 stories, built from 1981 to the present, reinforced concrete structures exceeding 10 stories in height, built from 1981 to the present. Using a methodology that integrates hazard maps, vulnerability curves for selected structural types, and estimated structural damage, seismic risk maps for Republic of North Macedonia have been developed. The proposed methodology connects the region – specific topologies of buildings and their vulnerability on one hand, and region – specific hazard map on the other.