Does the Integrated Development of High-End, Intelligent, and Green Manufacturing in China Influence Regional Dual Control of Carbon Emissions?—An Analysis Based on Impact Mechanisms and Spatial Effects

Against the backdrop of the “dual carbon” goals, the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry play a crucial role in achieving the dual objectives of controlling both total carbon emissions and carbon intensity. This study first defines the connotation of the integrated development of high-end, intelligent, and green manufacturing (referred to as “Three Modernization”) and constructs a conceptual framework illustrating its impact mechanisms on carbon emission dual control, with particular emphasis on intermediary pathways such as technological progress and energy structure optimization. Subsequently, based on provincial panel data from China covering the period 2009–2023, this paper employs fixed effects and spatial Durbin models to empirically examine the impact of the integrated development of “Three Modernization” on total carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity. The results show that the integration of high-end, intelligent, and green manufacturing significantly suppresses carbon emissions, with a more pronounced effect observed in economically developed regions. Mechanism tests further reveal that technological innovation enhances the application capacity of low-carbon technologies, while an increased share of clean energy usage effectively reduces reliance on fossil fuels, thereby indirectly facilitating the realization of the dual control targets. The spatial effect analysis indicates that the integration of “Three Modernization” exhibits significant spatial spillover effects, whereby regional synergies contribute to improved carbon reduction performance in neighboring areas. Furthermore, threshold model analysis confirms a notable nonlinear relationship moderated by technological complexity: when technological complexity is at a lower level, the emission-reduction effect of the “Three Modernization” integration is more substantial; however, once a certain threshold is exceeded, the marginal abatement effect diminishes, suggesting that in high-technology phases, the carbon-reduction efficiency of additional technological inputs declines. This nonlinear pattern indicates an inverted U-shaped relationship between the “Three Modernization” integration and carbon emission control. Therefore, differentiated dual control policies should be formulated to promote the region-specific integration of high-end, intelligent, and green development in manufacturing. This should be accompanied by continuous enhancement of technological innovation and green technology adoption, along with energy structure optimization, to ensure the sustainability of both total carbon emission control and intensity reduction.