Analyzing Germany's current and future critical raw material situation for water electrolysis and offshore wind turbines

Renewable energies require various raw materials that will drastically increase global demand in the coming years. The European Commission classifies materials with a high supply risk and a high economic importance as critical if they exceed the thresholds for both criteria. In 2023, the European Commission classified 34 materials as critical for the European Union's economy, 15 of which are also rated as strategic materials. Based on the EC's methodology using various indicators such as the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index, import dependency and the gross value added of individual economic sectors, this study is assessing the use of critical raw materials in water electrolyzes and offshore wind power for Germany. Both technologies are crucial for Germany to become climate neutral by 2045. These two technologies alone contain 12 of the 34 materials critical for the EU. To assess also future criticality, this study considers the targets of the European Commission's Critical Raw Materials Act, published in March 2023. These targets include a diversification of supplier countries, a drastic increase of domestic production of ores, concentrates and refined products as well as an increase in recycling rates. • Assessing supply risk of materials for water electrolysis and wind turbines. • Regionalizing the EU criticality methodology for Germany in 2023, 2030 and 2045. • Regionalization results in 7 different material criticalities for Germany in 2023 compared to EU. • Supply risk decreases for 10 materials by producer and supplier diversification in 2035 and 2045. • Targets of EU's Critical Raw Material Act does not reduce criticality sufficiently.