The Trump administration’s belief in multipolarity informs its transatlantic security policy

The Trump administration will concentrate on the realities of hard power and seek to move with a swiftness of decision and action. Deep structural ties and advantages accrued to the US will likely keep the nation engaged in the transatlantic alliance. However, the US is likely to scale back its commitments on the European continent in service of a Pacific prioritisation, retaining a more limited presence. The US will concurrently seek to force Europe to carry a greater share of the military burden in the theatre. The Trump administration’s understanding is of a distinction between NATO and the future of Ukraine, albeit one not shared by the bulk of European policymakers. Divergences relating to ending the Russian war against Ukraine are the most significant and obvious potential pitfall for transatlantic relations in the near term.