Investigation of Residential Value of Lost Load and the Importance of Electric Loads During Outages in Japan

Reducing damage caused by power outages is important against the background of severe natural disasters. Estimating the value of lost load (VoLL) is key to making an optimal investment plan for power systems. This paper aims to estimate the recent residential VoLL in Japan by using a survey. The contingent valuation method quantifies the residential willingness to pay (WTP) and its distribution in a 2 h outage during summer. When combining actual demand data, the VoLL is estimated at 501.1 JPY/kWh for a predictable outage and 559.9 JPY/kWh for a sudden one. In addition, the random utility model reveals the effect of people’s attributes on WTP. Larger annual incomes and electricity bills significantly increase WTP. Evacuation experiences and stockpiles also affect WTP in a sudden outage. Finally, 80% of respondents answered that refrigerators, air conditioners, and water supplies are important during outages.