Status-seeking in wartime: Poland’s leadership aspirations and the response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Poland’s response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 was decisive, driven by strong leadership aspirations. While many European states reassessed their foreign policy priorities, Poland positioned itself as a key player in shaping the Western response. Providing military aid before the invasion and advocating for strong NATO and EU measures, Poland sought to assert its status as a regional leader. To explain Poland’s response, this article employs neoclassical realism and argues that it was shaped by the concurrent presence of four domestic factors: Polish leaders’ perception of their country’s undervalued role in Europe, a strategic culture emphasizing deterrence and strong U.S. ties, a centralized institutional structure that enabled swift decision-making, and a broad societal consensus viewing Russia as an existential threat. By systematically analyzing primary sources – including official strategic and defense documents, speeches, and public statements – it demonstrates how these factors filtered systemic pressures from the invasion and reinforced Poland’s status-seeking behavior. The study further shows that Poland’s foreign policy stance persisted beyond the December 2023 government transition, highlighting the enduring influence of domestic factors. While the new government maintained strong support for Ukraine, it recalibrated Poland’s status-seeking efforts by prioritizing closer European integration and adjusting its diplomatic posture. This article contributes to the literature on European security by illustrating how domestic variables influence state behavior during geopolitical crises. Additionally, examining Poland’s case enhances our understanding of how middle powers navigate systemic pressures through domestic considerations, ultimately shaping their foreign policy direction.