Predicting the suitable habitat of the invasive alien plant <i>Lactuca serriola</i> using Biomod2 model with ArcGIS

Abstract Lactuca serriola L., a notorious invasive species, becomes significantly detrimental to indigenous ecosystems in China and devastates the diversity of life by aggressively establishing itself, occupying land and competing for essential natural resources like water, nutrient, and sunlight. As its tiny seeds are easily dispersed by wind, can remain viable for a long time even in harsh environments, and the plants can rapidly acclimate to various conditions, it spreads easily and becomes difficult to eradicate once it has invaded an area. Estimating the suitable habitat distribution of L. serriola and identifying the main environmental variables influencing its spread through modeling can provide essential baseline data for preventing its potential impacts. In the present study, based on the distribution occurrence data of L. serriola in China and related environmental variables, the Biomod2 ensemble model with ArcGIS was first employed to predict the suitable habitat pattern of L. serriola in China under the current and future climate scenarios integrated with variations covered six climatic factors, two soil factors and one topographic factor. The results showed that the true skill statistic (TSS) and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) values for the ensemble model were 0.827 and 0.976. The prediction results of the ensemble model were more accurate than those of the single models. Seasonal variation of climate (bio4) had the highest contribution, suggesting that it may be a key factor influencing the spread of L. serriola . High, moderately, low and unsuitable habitat of L. serriola in China were classified and mapped with highlight. The highly suitable area is mainly distributed in southwestern and northwestern China, with an area of about 24.73 × 10 4 km 2 , accounting for 8.4% of the total suitable area in China. Under future climate change, except for the 2090s, the total suitable habitat of L. serriola has the trend to be expanding, and the centroid of the suitable habitat of L. serriola tends to shift to the northeast and northwest, and higher latitudes. All the results indicate that early warning and monitoring measures of L. serriola in northeastern and northwestern China should be set up for early protection of Agri-ecosystems.