Weakening of the Arctic Water Outflow From the Barents Sea and Consequences on the Fram Strait Warming

Abstract Atlantic waters are transported to the Arctic Ocean mainly through the Fram Strait and the Barents Sea. Anomalous warm temperatures at the Fram Strait are generally interpreted as the consequence of a stronger and warmer West Spitsbergen Current (WSC) transporting the Atlantic Water (AW) northwards or as the propagation of warm anomalies across the Nordic Seas. In this study, we suggest that warm anomalies in the Fram Strait are also linked to a weakening of the westward flowing colder Arctic waters from the northern Barents Sea to the Svalbard region. Using a suite of satellite, in situ and reanalysis data, we propose two processes that could explain the weakening of this outflow during the recent decades. While direct wind forcing contributes to part of the observed weakening of the outflow, a reduction of the sea ice import from the central Arctic to the Barents Sea could impact the salinity in the northern Barents Sea, modify the meridional density gradient and further weaken the outflow. This phenomenon is eventually discussed in the context of long term trends and linked to the enhanced sea surface warming observed in the Fram Strait.