Assessing Stone Material Recession of Cultural Heritage: New Approach Based on Satellite-Based Rainfall Data and Dose-Response Functions—Case of UNESCO Site of Matera

The deterioration of stone materials due to atmospheric factors is a growing global concern, affecting the integrity and preservation of numerous UNESCO World Heritage Sites around the world. This study provides an estimate of the long-term impact of the climate on the degradation of carbonate stone materials in the UNESCO site of Matera, in southern Italy. Focusing on Gravina calcarenite, a lithotype susceptible to weathering, the research integrates satellite-derived precipitation data from the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) with a dose-response model. The method involves the calibration of CHIRPS precipitation records against ground-based meteorological data, and the use of year-specific recession coefficients Ky dynamically computed as a function of atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature. These coefficients were applied within a Lipfert-based equation to estimate annual surface recession from 1981 to 2040 (near future). The results reveal a continuous increase in surface degradation over time, with the cumulative material loss reaching approximately 0.75 mm by 2040. These findings underscore the relevance of climate-responsive models in estimating stone decay and provide a critical basis for adaptive conservation planning. Incorporating future climate projections into risk assessments is essential for the sustainable preservation of carbonate-based cultural heritage exposed to atmospheric and hydrological stressors.