An Innovation Machine Learning Approach for Ship Fuel-Consumption Prediction Under Climate-Change Scenarios and IMO Standards

This study introduces an innovative Emotional Artificial Neural Network (EANN) model to predict ship fuel consumption with high accuracy, addressing the challenges posed by complex environmental conditions and operational variability. This research examines the impact of climate change on maritime operations and fuel efficiency by analyzing climatic variables such as wave period, wind speed, and sea-level rise. The model’s performance is assessed using two ship types (bulk carrier and container ship with max 60,000 dead weight tonnage (DWT)) under various climate scenarios. A comparative analysis demonstrates that the EANN model significantly outperforms the conventional Feedforward Neural Network (FFNN) in predictive accuracy. For bulk carriers, the EANN achieved a Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 5.71 tons/day during testing, compared to 9.91 tons/day for the FFNN model. Similarly, for container ships, the EANN model achieved an RMSE of 5.97 tons/day, significantly better than the FFNN model’s 10.18 tons/day. A sensitivity analysis identified vessel speed as the most critical factor, contributing 33% to the variance in fuel consumption, followed by engine power and current speed. Climate-change simulations showed that fuel consumption increases by an average of 22% for bulk carriers and 19% for container ships, highlighting the importance of operational optimizations. This study emphasizes the efficacy of the EANN model in predicting fuel consumption and optimizing ship performance. The proposed model provides a framework for improving energy efficiency and supporting compliance with International Maritime Organization Standards (IMO) environmental standards. Meanwhile, the Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII) evaluation results emphasize the urgent need for measures to reduce carbon emissions to meet the IMO’s 2030 standards.