Runoff Variations and Quantitative Analysis in the Qinghai Lake Basin Under Changing Environments

This study examines runoff variations and their drivers in the Buha and Shaliu Rivers of the Qinghai Lake Basin (1960–2016), a key ecological area in China. Abrupt changes were detected using the Mann–Kendall and cumulative anomaly methods, while the Budyko framework attributed runoff variations to dominant factors. Correlation and grey relational analyses assessed multicollinearity, and a lake water balance model with climate elasticity theory quantified the effects of climate and land surface changes on runoff components and lake levels. Results indicate that the Buha River experienced an abrupt runoff change in 2004, while the Shaliu River exhibited a change beginning in 2003. Based on the trends and abrupt change points of each factor, the study period was divided into four segments: 1960–1993, 1994–2016, 1960–2003, and 2004–2016. The correlation coefficients are significantly different in different periods. The climate elasticity coefficients were as follows: P (precipitation), 1.98; ET0 (potential evapotranspiration), −0.98; Rn (net radiation), 0.66; T (average temperature), 0.02; U2 (wind speed at 2 m height), 0.16; RHU (relative umidity), −0.56. The elasticity coefficient of runoff with respect to precipitation is significantly higher than that for other climate variables. Net radiation and relative humidity contribute equally to runoff, while wind speed and temperature have relatively smaller effects. In the Qinghai Lake Basin, runoff is sensitive to precipitation (0.38), potential evapotranspiration (−0.07), and the underlying surface parameter ω (−98.32). Specifically, a 1 mm increase in precipitation raises runoff by 0.38 mm, while a 1 mm rise in potential evapotranspiration reduces it by 0.07 mm. A one-unit increase in ω leads to a significant runoff decrease of 98.32 mm. According to the lake water balance model, climate contributes 88.43% to groundwater runoff, while land surface changes contribute −11.57%. Climate change and land surface changes contribute 93.02% and 6.98%, respectively, to lake water levels. This study quantitatively evaluates the impacts of climate and land surface changes on runoff, providing insights for sustainable hydrological and ecological management in the Qinghai Lake Basin.