Drought risk to soybean in Northeastern China: History and future

Soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merr.) is not only a globally significant oilseed crop but also a critical component of food security and global oil supply stability, making its resilience to climate variability an issue of paramount importance.This study examines the drought disaster risk associated with soybean production in Northeastern China under the influence of climate change, aiming to provide a scientific basis for soybean production management.Soybean is a globally significant oilseed crop, highly sensitive to climate conditions, particularly drought.In recent years, as global warming has increased the frequency of drought events, serious threats have emerged to soybean yield and quality.By analyzing historical meteorological observation data and future climate scenarios, this research assesses the frequency, intensity, and disaster risk of drought during different growth stages of soybeans.The results indicate significant heterogeneity in future drought frequency and intensity across different soybean growth stages.Drought frequency is expected to decrease overall during the sowing to emergence stage, although some western regions will remain at high risk.Conversely, the drought risk is projected to significantly increase during the branching to flowering and flowering to maturity stages, especially in the northern and western regions.Different climate scenarios also show varying levels of future drought risk.The study further reveals that, despite an overall reduction in drought intensity across most regions compared to historical periods, especially in the distant future (2061-2100), localized risks remain a concern.Through this drought risk assessment, the study offers theoretical support for enhancing drought resilience and developing disaster prevention and mitigation strategies for soybean production in China.